I found this article a great read so thought i would share it with you all.
Larry at Gambling systems reviews
The trainers give their predictions and way up thier chances for this years Cheltenham Festival
ALAN KING
Nothing is ever normal when you get the chance to visit leading trainer Alan King at his frankly stunning stables, be that the heavy snow we suffered last year, or the pea soup fog we encountered this year, leaving half the journalists driving around in circles looking for the yard.
Still, turn up we did, and after a cup of coffee and a Danish pastry (even us scribes have to eat now and again), we were wheeled outside to go through the stable’s Cheltenham hopefuls who were paraded before us in the faux pre-parade ring (no stone left unturned here, I assure you).
First things first, and I have to admit I felt a little less enthusiasm from both connections and the media throng regarding this year’s contenders compared to last year, but then hopes were unrealistically high in 2010 and the top class novices have it all to do if they are to raise their game to the Championship events. Anyway, my opinions are not what this is all about, so on to the horses themselves and an assessment of their chances…….though I have cherry picked those the trainer seemed most enthusiastic about!
RAVETHEBRAVE
A 20/1 shot for the Centenary Novices Handicap Chase he could be a bit of a dark horse if he gets into the race. His trainer described him as a very nice horse but with a wry smile on his face suggesting we may not have seen the best of this seven year old who was last seen when runner up to Carrickmines at Kempton.
The general consensus was that he could be reasonably handicapped and if everything goes his way he has chances of making the frame.
MEDERMIT
Although I normally like to look for the darker horses, where the handler’s body language betrays his real thoughts, in the case of this novice chaser Alan King made it pretty clear he felt this one was his best chance of Festival success.
Due to run in the Arkle Chase on Tuesday, and a very good hurdler rated as highly as 164 over the smaller obstacles, he won his first chase at Aintree by a distance, before blotting his copybook when refusing at Huntingdon.
A win at Plumpton was followed by second place over too far at Cheltenham and a “hanging on” victory over the same two miles five furlongs at Sandown.
Dropping back to two miles in a fast run race for the Arkle is seen as ideal and although 9/2 is not great value in my book, his trainer seemed pretty bullish, so what do I know?
JETNOVA
A six year old son of Luso, he is doubly declared for both the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle and the Martin Pipe Conditions Jockeys Handicap hurdle on the Friday with preference for the first named for which he is priced at 50/1!
After three victories, two at Plumpton and when last seen at Warwick, he will need to improve considerably to get in the shake up, but his trainer warned us all not to underestimate him, and given good ground he could run a lot better than his current price suggests.
OH CRICK
Only entered in the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase (the last race on Friday), this eight year old may have a better chance than his 14/1 price implies.
He was last seen when third behind both Cornas and Tchico Polos at Sandown in early January and has been deliberately kept off the track to avoid a rise in his handicap mark.
I have to say that body language suggested he may be a bit better than that and he is now considered back to his very best, and given decent ground at the Festival he goes there with every chance. He is a former Festival winner.
HABBIE SIMPSON
The general consensus was that this six year old will have it all to do if Bobs Worth turns up for the Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle but that is still his likely target and he could make it in to the frame.
40/1 is a big price for a horse with room for a lot more improvement, and there will be a few worse each way bets in the race at that sort of price according to the glint in his trainer’s eye!
SMAD PLACE
Considering his form was pretty lacklustre in his native France, King has done a decent job getting him in to a position to even run in the Triumph Hurdle on the Friday where I got the feeling he is seen as the stable number one of three entries.
Fast ground would be seen as a problem, but if the ground is good or softer he is not without chances. His run when third at Chepstow needs to be ignored as he needed it, but he put the record straight last time out at Wincanton with a cheeky victory and has improved again in his work at home since.
12/1 is his current price for Cheltenham which is not exactly generous on what he has achieved so far, but he is thought capable of getting in the firing line for one of the toughest races to call of the entire week of Cheltenham.
Conclusions:
Overall, I just got the feeling that Alan King was nowhere near as confident this year as he was last about his Cheltenham chances and will be happy to come away with a couple of winners (as will I lol). However, they are much better priced overall and anyone thinking about a few each way bets could do a lot worse than consider some of the horses mentioned in their multiple bets.
Paul Nicholls at his Ditcheat stables
PAUL NICHOLLS
As Cheltenham approaches us lucky hacks get reminded just how close the greatest racing of the year actually is, with an invite to the more powerful yards to discuss their chances, and on Monday I drove all the way to deepest darkest Somerset for a chat with Champion trainer, Paul Nicholls.
Paul is a master of his trade who retired from the saddle after riding 1230 winners and quickly made his mark at the training game. He now has over 140 horses in training and sits in fifth place on the all time list for the most winners at the Cheltenham Festival, with only Nicky Henderson ahead of him of those still plying their trade. His ability to target the right horses at the right races and to have them at their peak for March has seen him snaffle the leading trainer award at the Festival in 1999, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009, before losing his title to (you guessed it) Nicky Henderson last year, but that will only make him all the more determined to win it back in 2011.
First things first, and I could just cut and paste the other articles already written by other journalists who went on the visit, but then again they seem to listen but don’t seem to hear, and I assure you my article is based on reading between the lines added to a touch of body language as well as the bare facts as stated, so if you want to make this Cheltenham a profitable one (never an easy task), then I suggest you keep on the right side of the following horses:
BRAMPOUR
There are certainly worse 16/1 shots for the Triumph Hurdle and his trainer seemed pretty sweet on his chances despite his tempting price. Handled by Jean-Claude Rouget on the flat in France, he was placed in a Listed race at Deauville which is decent form, and given good jumping ground at Cheltenham he would go there with every chance.
His last run saw him win readily enough at Taunton and with Paul Nicholls admitting he had left plenty to work on that day, we should not take the form too literally as he is no doubt considerably better than we have seen on the track so far.
AITEEN THIRTYTHREE
If one horse stood out as the strongest fancy of the week then this novice chaser was clearly the one. He has won both his races over fences by no less than seventeen lengths and FIFTY lengths so clearly has an engine, and there was no disguising the enthusiasm of his trainer over his chances in the RSA Chase over three miles.
Jockey Noel Fehily apparently described him as one of the nicest horses he has ever sat on and barring an accident, he ought to be there or thereabouts on the day, making the 10/1 look excellent each way value.
GHIZAO
The Arkle chase is never an easy race to win but I have to tell you that this seven year old has an “outstanding chance”, and with those words coming from the Champion trainer, you have to sit up and take notice.
In what looks likely to be a cracking renewal as always, this son of Tiger Hill who is flat-bred and thus retains plenty of speed also jumps like a stag, as witnessed by bloodless victories at Cheltenham and Chepstow. He does seem to have that enviable combination of speed and stamina which will serve him well and at 9/2 the choice is yours.
MASTER MINDED
A bit more on the obvious side with this eight year old who seems to have been around forever and has already won twenty-three races and over a million pounds in prize money.
He has already won the Queen Mother Champion Chase not once but twice, in 2008 and 2009 but ran below par last year when “only” fourth to Big Zeb.
BUT… he has had a breathing operation and is now looking an absolute picture and ready to try to reclaim his crown. Provided he can be kept back for one winning run, he goes to Prestbury Park with an outstanding chance and I could not fail to see the sparkle in his trainer’s eye when talking about his chances.
BIG BUCKS
Officially rated the best horse in training, he just goes from strength to strength and looks to me to be the banker of the entire meeting even at the current price of 11/10.
Although the racing press, ably assisted by the bookmakers try hard to talk up the chances of the fast improving David Pipe-trained Grands Crus, beauty is as beauty does and ten consecutive victories including the World Hurdle in both 2009 and 2010 tells its own story, and as he is yet to be off the bridle in all those races a good fight may be just what he needs to bring out the best in him and show us just how good he really is.
AL FEROF
I admit it, I “ummed and aahed” about whether to include this six year old who ran a blinder when runner up to Cue Card in last year’s bumper but has failed to impress me over hurdles.
He has won his last two races by wide margins and his trainer insists a fast run two miles in the Supreme Novices will bring out the best in him and as he travels well tactics will not be a problem, and if Mr Nicholls thinks he is good enough to go close, who am I to argue?
At 16/1 he is certainly an each way price as I write, and being a striking grey he will be easy to spot during the race, while the expected good ground will also apparently play to his strengths and he has to be considered.
CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP
What is there to say? Paul Nicholls is lucky enough to have both DENMAN and KAUTO STAR in his yard, as well as NEPTUNE COLLONGES, who is a lively outsider for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the biggest race of the jumping year.
Both the first two have won the race before (twice in the case of Kauto Star) and both go back with chances despite their advancing years, but even their trainer struggled to choose between them.
If pressed, I felt he might have leant fractionally toward KAUTO STAR, though not with any real conviction.
Conclusions:
One thing I have learnt is to never write off Paul Nicholls and his horses and although I have felt all season his horses have not been quite 100%, if anyone can get them to the Festival at their peak the Champion trainer can.
He has riches in abundance as you have already read and will undoubtedly win races during the week while all eyes will be waiting to see if there is one more Gold Cup in either Kauto Star or Denman. Once again, I will sit on the fence and leave you to make your own decisions betting wise, but there are plenty of hints above and some decent prices to boot.
Nicky Henderson looks relaxed with his Cheltenham prospects
NICKY HENDERSON
Having been lucky enough to visit three of the most respected trainers in the world of National Hunt racing in the past seven days, it is hard to favour one over the other, though it is glaringly obvious that they all have different attributes and styles, be that with the horses or with the media that frankly they seem forced to deal with.
As a genuine horse racing anorak of many years, I feel privileged to meet both the handlers and the horses who have such an influence on my life, but Nicky must be the most laid back, polite and self assured of them all, but then maybe that is because he has been there, done that and got the T-shirt, and knows full well he has nothing left to prove to himself or anyone else.
I am convinced that his relaxed manner passes on to the horses and you should see how at ease he is with them at all times – truly a master horseman, but which horses does he think have the best chances at this year’s Cheltenham Festival?
With a long list of horses paraded in front of us, enthusiastically picking a few to follow was no easy task, but as is my wont, I like to read between the lines, and give you a little something extra that the other hacks may have missed, so do read on……
BOBS WORTH
Hopefully, stable companion Mossley will head for the Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle in which case he has a very good.
He may have finished runner up on his debut in a Kempton bumper but has not looked back since with four clear-cut wins where he has always looked to have plenty left in the tank. He is in good order at home, and jockey Barry Geraghty rates his chances, which is more than good enough for me!
MOSSLEY
More of a dark horse than most from the stable (they have had so many winners this season that very few go unbacked), this five year old gelding had done nothing wrong in winning his bumper at Worcester and following up over hurdles at Huntingdon and Cheltenham
That was before the wheels fell of at Warwick, where he hated the heavy going. Decent ground seems more likely at Cheltenham which will suit him perfectly and as he is better suited by three miles than any less, the Albert Bartlett is his most realistic target. It would seem the bookmakers think differently (and they could be right) as they have priced him up at 25/1 which for a horse with the sort of engine he clearly has does seem generous, and is worth serious consideration.
A MEDIA LUZ
I notice the trainer kept coming back to this four year old filly, and he seems pretty certain she is as lot better than her bare form implies. One win from four starts have hardly set the racing world alight though she did look in the process of winning at Kempton when falling two out.
Her handler does not consider her likely to be well handicapped in the Fred Winter so she will most likely head to the Triumph Hurdle instead where he odds of 12/1 are not exactly generous on what she has achieved and seem more down to the success of her trainer?
SPRINTER SACRE
There was just no getting away from how much his handler likes this five year old who is considered to have the brightest of futures, though whether we have to wait for him to go over fences to see the real deal is a moot point. Over hurdles he has been exemplary once dropped back to two miles, and if he goes for the Supreme Novices he has an each way chance
Though with Cue Card , Al Ferof and stablemate Spirit Son in opposition, winning could be beyond him I am sorry to say, though next year I fully expect him to win the Arkle in a hack canter.
[Matt says, that is one of the boldest statements I’ve seen in.. well, ever... I considered editing it out but thought I’d leave it in so you can make your own minds up!]
CAROLE’S LEGACY
No one but an idiot (or journalist?) could expect to find the winner of the Stewart Family Spinal Reseach Handicap Chase, but the Henderson camp do feel that this mare is well in over fences in comparison to if she reverts to hurdles.
Equally adept over both, this will almost certainly be her last season before retirement to the breeding paddocks where I wish her well, though if she could sign off with victory here all the better.
A 25/1 shot for the race, her astute hander thinks she has a decent chance which is good enough for me and she is another that should not be ignored for any silly bets!
FINIAN’S RAINBOW
Well the Arkle Chase looks like it is turning in to the race of the meeting according to my trainer interviews with all the big yards feeling they have the leading contender.
Nicky Henderson is no exception and he was pretty enthusiastic about the chances of this eight year old who was over enthusiastic when last seen at Warwick, but that was all part of his learning process.
A pretty decent hurdler he is already even better over the larger obstacles and connections have now proved he can make the running if needed or sit in behind, so tactically he is pretty flexible which has to be a bonus. He is certainly built like a chaser unlike some of his market rivals and if he can get round without too many errors the 9/2 could look good in running.
AEGEAN DAWN
Interestingly, this unbeaten gelding was virtually glossed over at first by the trainer, but a quick chat with the stable staff gave him as their idea of the banker! Digging for more info, it seems they feel he is good enough that he may well win the Coral Cup (10/1) and then run again in the County Hurdle (14/1), which although unlikely, does show they think he can win the first with ease so get on while you can.
LONG RUN
Although Nicky did describe this six year old as his best chance yet of winning a Gold Cup, I have to be honest and say that he did not seem as enthusiastic as you may have read elsewhere.
He is a very promising horse as seen when he ran away with the King George at Kempton and if he can repeat that form he must have an outstanding chance but I do feel he is prone to the odd jumping error and whether he can get away with that against the big guns in the biggest race of the season we will have to wait and see.
Conclusions
So, as we can all see, Henderson certainly has a strong hand to go to war at Cheltenham with, and I hope my little insights point you in the direction of a winner or two, but we will all see come the end of the battle with the bookmakers in mid March!
Nigel Twiston-Davies has his team spot on for the Cheltenham Festival 2011
NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES
First things first, and I had never been to the Twiston-Davies yard before, so must have looked like a wide eyed novice when all us journo’s piled on to a big green double decker bus when we first arrived for a coffee and a Danish.
Surreal as that was, the fact that we ten drove off to the gallops with the trainer himself driving the bus made me wonder what I had been drinking, but then eccentricity has always been the British way and long may that continue.
Arriving at the gallops about two minutes later (we could have walked, but then where is the fun in that?), the Gold Cup winning trainer was miked up which at least made it possible for us hacks to hear every word that was said without clambering over each other to do so!
As a string of horses walked past us led, of course, by Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, their trainer read out a list of names a little too quickly for my liking but as they returned back up the hill at speed in the same order not once but three times, even I managed to catch up.
Working out who looked well and who didn’t in the bitter cold and at less than half speed was beyond us all so we waited and listened to the wise words of a trainer I still feel is underestimated by the majority of the racing press and punters alike, which spells the chance of a spot of value to me?
Imperial Commander
Might as well start with the top of the tree and there is no hiding his trainer’s enthusiasm for his chances of a repeat in the Gold Cup. Still relatively young at the age of ten (well, in comparison to eleven year olds Denman and Kauto Star), he has had a gentle season with this his main if not only target for 2011.
One run saw him win well enough at Haydock, and the fact that he failed to make the King George line could yet be a blessing in disguise as he comes here fresh and well after some impressive racecourse gallops.
His trainer feels the younger generation have it all to prove (and let’s face it. Long Run is currently rated a massive thirteen pounds his inferior), and is more worried about the old guard (back to Kauto Star and Denman then), if anything can take his crown.
My only concern is his lack of race fitness for the most important chase of the year, but if he arrives 100%, then he must have every chance and has done precious little wrong that I can see.
Baby Run
I am starting with the “top three” horses that as you will see from the photo, are hardly unknown dark horses. Hardly a newcomer at the age of eleven, Baby Run has looked better than ever this season with two good wins at Wetherby and Haydock, with one on good to soft ground and one on heavy, so all ground seems to come alike to this son of Baby Turk.
He will be ridden in the Foxhunters by Will Twiston-Davies who looks like a real talent like brother, Sam, but more importantly he gets the day-to-day contact with his mount unlike a lot of the other riders.
Khyber Kim
A bit of a forgotten horse here, current quoted at 20/1 for the Champion Hurdle and certainly an each way option. His trainer was clearly delighted with his wellbeing ahead of the big race and had a beaming smile when discussing his chances.
He was second in the race last year at odds of 7/1 (20/1 this year may seem like value), and is another deliberately lightly raced to make sure he is as his peak when it matters. Two runs this season have seen victory at Aintree over two and a half miles before a slightly below par effort when hitting the last at Kempton when already beaten.
Whether he can turn round the form with Binocular is a big ask but that rival can run a bit in and out and back on a track that will bring his stamina in to play up the hill he has a fair chance and may be overpriced for the each way thieves.
Oscar Magic
There is no disguising the competitiveness of the Champion Bumper this year as always but neither can I hide the regard Nigel has for this four-year-old son of (you guessed it), Oscar.
His problem could be his inexperience as he has only had the one run when winning at Kempton without really impressing, but it would appear he is a lot better than that at home and has improved a bundle for that run.
On the form book, he could win or finish last (it is that sort of race), but all I can tell you is his trainer likes him a lot, which may tell more than the form book at the end of the day?
Sybarite
If there is a really dark horse worth considering, then this five year old could be the one. Away from the stable stars we all expected to see, this is the one horse Nigel likes above all others, and although a hurdler at present, he sees him as a future Gold Cup contender.
Where that leaves his chances in the Albert Bartlett is a whole new question, but he must have a serious engine to be talked of in such terms, in which case the 20/1 is sorely tempting even if it is to very small stakes.
Kayf Aramis
Last, but by no means least, Kayf Aramis got more than a passing mention even though a look through the formbook writes him off as far as I am concerned.
He has not won a race of any kind since May 2009 which would worry any punter, but he did win the Pertemps Handicap Final at the Festival the same year and finished fifth last year as well.
Slowly slipping down the handicap, he races off a mark of 142 this year, seven pounds less than last season which in theory could put him in the first four, but more importantly he is only just coming back to his best at home and I may have even talked myself in to have a bet!
article by geegeez and sir ivor racing.
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