Timeform's Jamie Lynch tries to locate the value for the first big handicap of the Flat season...
This little article was going to begin with an all-out attack on the Racing For Change mob and their preoccupation with needlessly restructuring the end of the Flat season, when the start of it still limps in so pathetically - it would be difficult enough for Doncaster's voice to be heard above Cheltenham and Aintree, so what chance has Catterick got; but then I realised that, at the same time I was formulating this high-and-mighty, paper-thin rant, I was trying to get a bet matched on the seller at Wolverhampton.
The truth is that for me and the vast majority of people who use and peruse Betfair, as well as most who enjoy the sport, there's not much wrong with racing as things are. Opportunities are easily lost while focusing on the negatives. Racing isn't in crisis. Japan and Libya are in crisis. Yes, racing has its problems and issues, but no more so than any and every other industry in the current climate. Like all sports, racing has quietly changed over the decades and will continue to do so in order to adapt to whatever circumstances and difficulties present themselves at any given time, but if an official body - like we now have - is to lead the way then surely it needs to start at the bottom rather than the top as has happened so far with the British Champions' Day palaver.
Anyway, the point of this piece isn't so I could vent this teeny-weeny spleen, but to seize one of the bigger and better opportunities that Flat racing has to offer, namely the Lincoln Handicap. Thinking about it, we actually don't need a fanfare, fireworks and Fake That live in concert for a grand opening of the Flat season do we? The Lincoln itself is enough of an announcement, as it has always been, and there's nothing like a big-race bet to get the adrenaline pumping, so let's find one...or two.
Here's some valuable information, completely free and gratis: Taqleed is one of our Horses To Follow (if you haven't already, get your copy now - all 136 pages of it - at www.timeform.com). We have to be honest and say he wasn't really included with the Lincoln in mind, as we thought he had bigger fish to fry, and that will hopefully still be the case, but John Gosden never passes up an opportunity to bag a valuable handicap and here is Taqleed, high on positives but low on value now, the price gone.
You'd need a second and third and fourth opinion before trusting this particular Doc, but Docofthebay has a much better form chance than his odds suggest, even factoring in his foibles. In fairness, Docofthebay has turned the new leaf at least three-quarters of the way over in the few months he's been with Dandy Nicholls, and his latest second in a Wolverhampton listed race puts him ahead of the game, 6 lb 'well in' officially. The reason Docofthebay is trading at 27.0 is because of the Docofthebay of old, but at those odds it's worth a punt that we're dealing with a new and improved Docofthebay, and don't forget that he was once runner-up in a Hunt Cup, likewise a straight mile.
At this stage, it's touch and go whether Gunner Lindley and Eton Forever, who both have plenty going for them, will make the cut. In fact it looks as if, bar Taqleed, there will be hardly any up-and-comers in the final twenty-two, and therefore a solid profile with a 'been there and done that' badge is more attractive than might ordinarily be the case in a big handicap. Step forward Prime Exhibit. Runner up in the Lincoln twelve months ago, Prime Exhibit looks better still coming into the race this time around judged on his reappearance third - just behind Lowther and Tartan Gigha - in the trial at Wolverhampton, when unlucky not to win. Paul Hanagan is set to ride Irish Heartbeat, who could be more a sprinter than a miler these days, but the bonus for Prime Exhibit is that Lee Topliss takes 5 lb off, and he's excellent value for it.
Apologies for hijacking what was supposed to be a simple tipping article to get on my high horse, and it's not very high before vertigo kicks in where my appreciation of racing politics is concerned, but it does matter to me (and to all of us) what's happening and, moreover, what will happen. It's not a case of 'if it's not broke then don't fix it,' because there are areas in which racing is broke - literally and metaphorically - and does need fixing, but, honourable though the Racing For Change ideology is, the worry is that they are going about things the wrong way by revamping Premier League races which frankly didn't need revamping. The programme book is okay as it was, as we'll discover this untouched weekend, and, in the wider scheme, it's insignificant if a few would-be snobs like me think that, to kick off the Flat season, it would be better if Catterick, Leicester and Musselburgh came after Doncaster and not before. The point to celebrate is that we have a Catterick, Leicester, Musselburgh and Doncaster and we have a race rich in heritage like the Lincoln, and therein lies the true beauty of British racing: its depth and variation, and the vast opportunities provided. Whether or not Docofthebay or Prime Exhibit do the business on Saturday, they'll have plenty more opportunities through the season, and so will you.
Recommendations
Back Docofthebay @ 27.0
Back Prime Exhibit @ 12.0
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