Arsenal's trend of winning home matches comfortably in the Premier League hasn't gone unnoticed by Andrew Atherley, who tells us how we can profit from the stats available...
Arsenal's attacking philosophy opens up some good-value options against West Ham at the Emirates on Saturday, for which they are hot favourites at 1.2 to win the match.
The Gunners' good strike-rate on the Asian handicap - highlighted in this column earlier in the season - makes them worth considering at 1.97 off a -2.0 handicap, as they have delivered at least a two-goal margin of victory in 15 of their 23 home games since the start of last season.
The Arsenal double result on the Half Time/Full Time is 1.65 to back in the early betting and those odds are not quite in line with their strike-rate, as they have won 17 out of 23 in that manner since the start of last season. That 74% strike-rate equates to odds of 1.35.
It is clear from those stats that Arsenal often strike early - this season, only Chelsea have scored more often in the first 20 minutes of matches - but the key point with the Gunners is that they continue striving to score even when they are in front, which is the reason why they rack up so many wide-margin wins at home.
That means Arsenal to win both halves is an attractive odds-against option on Saturday at 2.14 to back. As the half time/full time stats indicate, Arsenal are not a team to sit back and defend a lead - since the start of last season they have won both halves in just over half (12 out of 23) of their home matches.
The strike-rate was even better last season when matches against the top six were excluded - on that measure, Arsenal won both halves in 10 out of 14 at home. With those matches being the ones most likely to be won by Arsenal (last season they won 13 out of 14 at home to teams outside the top six), the odds on them winning both halves should be significantly shorter.
Saturday's match against West Ham clearly fits into that highly winnable category and all those options - Arsenal off -2.0 on the Asian handicap, on the Half Time/Full Time and to win both halves - have to be viable options.
The perception of Manchester City under Roberto Mancini is that they have become more defence-minded - and no doubt that view hardened in many people's minds with Nigel de Jong's recent comment that "a clean sheet is holy" to the Italian.
"That's what he preaches: make sure we don't concede," said De Jong. "It is the mindset of every player. The belief is there. I don't want to say the belief wasn't there under Mark Hughes but with the manager coming from Italy defence is No 1."
The aspiration is not, however, matched by reality, especially on the road. In 14 away league games under Mancini, City have kept a clean sheet on just four occasions. As a comparison, City had a better strike-rate of clean sheets last season prior to Hughes's departure in December, with three clean sheets in nine away games.
Mancini had a clean sheet in his first away game, in a 3-0 win at Wolves on Boxing Day last year, but the next did not come for another four months, in a goalless draw at Arsenal. This season the strike-rate has improved with two clean sheets in four away matches, in a 0-0 at Tottenham and a 2-0 win at Wigan, but the overall figures suggest they are just as likely to keep a clean sheet against one of the big teams as they are against a struggling team.
That indicates City could well fail to repeat last season's clean sheet when they visit Molineux on Saturday.
Recommended betsArsenal to win both halves v West Ham at 2.14
No to a Manchester City clean sheet v Wolves at 1.72
posted by Gambling systems reviews
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