Tottenham are underrated for their visit to face holders Inter at the San Siro on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham.
For Inter, Esteban Cambiasso and Diego Milito are definitely out. For Tottenham, Rafael van der Vaart is suspended and captain Ledley King is unavailable through injury. Jermain Defoe is a long-term injury absentee.
Rafael Benitez has made a decent start to what might have been billed the impossible job of following in Jose Mourinho's footsteps. Inter took 10pts from their opening four Serie A matches but their form has taken a turn for the worse as they suffered a 1-0 defeat to Roma (Sept 25) and drew 0-0 at home to Juventus (Oct 3).
Spurs have won their last three games in all competitions and will be confident of getting something from the game after drawing 2-2 at Werder Bremen in their opening group match and thrashing FC Twente 4-1 a fortnight ago.
The price of 1.72 on Inter looks too short to me. The 6.0 on Tottenham without van der Vaart is a huge gamble, so the draw is the smartest choice at 3.95. If you want to cover the possibility of the draw and Tottenham winning, then lay Inter at 1.73.
Benitez may like to make this a tight, dour game but I believe Spurs' more enterprising approach will set the tone. Some wondered whether Harry Redknapp would take a more defensive approach, but nine goals in Spurs' opening two group games is a fairly emphatic answer. Even if Spurs play a 4-5-1, I suspect there will be plenty of chances at both ends.
Six of Inter's 11 games and nine of Spurs' 13 games in all competitions have had over 2.5 goals this season. Those stats equate to 63%, or 1.60, so the 1.81 on over 2.5 goals is a touch of value.
Inter defended magnificently on route to winning the Champions League last season, but the pace and variety of Spurs' attack will cause them problems (although the absence of van der Vaart is a blow). Both teams have scored in nine of Spurs' 13 games in 2010-11, so I would consider backing 'Yes' in this market at 1.75.
One Inter player that has responded to Benitez's arrival as coach is Samuel Eto'o. The debate about where he plays in Inter's 4-2-3-1 may continue, but his 2010-11 stats are unequivocal: four goals in two Champions League games, including a hat-trick in Inter's 4-0 win over Werder Bremen, two goals in Inter's 3-1 Italian Super Cup win over Roma and six goals in seven Serie A appearances. Back Eto'o to find the target anytime at a price around 2.2.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score @ 1.75.
Other Recommended Bets: Lay Inter at 1.73 and Samuel Eto'o To Score @ 2.2.
* Inter v Tottenham, ITV1, Wednesday, 7.45pm kick-off
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